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18 Feb 2026

Why Traders Still See Long-Term Upside in African Oil

Why Traders Still See Long-Term Upside in African Oil

As global energy markets evolve, some of the world’s largest commodity trading houses are betting that oil will remain central to the energy mix well into the 2030s. Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, now projects that global oil demand will peak in the mid-2030s, with consumption in 2040 potentially 5 million barrels per day (bpd) higher than previous estimates. This outlook underscores continued reliance on oil, even as electrification and alternative fuels gain traction, and positions African hydrocarbons and LNG infrastructure as strategically significant for decades.

Africa’s oil-producing nations – particularly Angola, Nigeria, Ghana and Mozambique – are attracting trader-backed capital for both upstream development and LNG export projects. Upstream capital expenditure across Africa is projected at roughly $41 billion in 2026, targeting drilling and field expansion in prolific basins such as Delta State in Nigeria’s Niger Delta, one of the country’s largest crude-producing regions. Angola is advancing projects in the Lower Congo Basin, including over 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 100 million barrels of condensate, positioning the country as a potential regional gas hub with $30 billion in planned investment. Ghana and Mozambique are similarly seeing activity, with ExxonMobil’s Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique moving toward a final investment decision and modular LNG trains capable of producing 18 million tons per annum, linking African gas to global markets.

Traders are increasingly moving beyond cargo deals into direct investment and infrastructure in African energy markets. Vitol recently acquired stakes in Eni’s African upstream projects, including a 30% interest in the Baleine offshore field in Ivory Coast and a 25% stake in the Congo LNG project; Baleine already produces more than 60,000 barrels per day, while Congo LNG is expanding toward 4.5 billion cubic meters per year. Equatorial Guinea is actively offering prepaid crude and LNG supply deals worth about $300 million to major commodity traders as part of efforts to secure upfront capital for upstream development and reverse production declines, reflecting how trading houses are being positioned as financiers and long-term counterparties in the region’s oil and gas markets.

Beyond crude, traders are anchoring LNG-linked power and distribution projects: Vitol is partnering on a $3 billion gas-to-power plant and LNG import terminal at Durban Port, South Africa, targeting 1,000-1,800 MW of gas-fired electricity. In Nigeria, traders including Vitol, Trafigura and bp have committed to structured offtake agreements from the Dangote Refinery, which will reach 650,000 bpd of processing capacity, helping secure supply chains for refined products across West Africa.

Platforms such as the Invest in African Energy Forum (IAE) in Paris, April 22–23, 2026, provide a crucial venue for connecting investors, upstream developers and commodity traders. The forum’s deal rooms and curated meetings allow participants to negotiate structured offtake agreements, co-investment opportunities and LNG-linked infrastructure financing. By linking African production assets with traders actively acquiring equity stakes and project-backed positions, IAE 2026 helps transform commercial potential into actionable, bankable projects.

For African producers, this trader engagement signals long-term confidence in the continent’s energy sector. Sustained upstream investment, coupled with LNG and power-linked infrastructure, demonstrates that Africa remains central to global oil and gas supply – and that traders see opportunities extending well into the next decade. As global energy systems balance decarbonization with practical demand, African oil and gas assets, supported by trader capital and structured investment, are poised to remain commercially relevant through the mid-2030s and beyond.

IAE 2026 is an exclusive forum designed to connect African energy markets with global investors, serving as a key platform for deal-making in the lead-up to African Energy Week. Scheduled for April 22–23, 2026, in Paris, the event will provide delegates with two days of in-depth engagement with industry experts, project developers, investors and policymakers. For more information, visit www.invest-africa-energy.com. To sponsor or register as a delegate, please contact sales@energycapitalpower.com

 

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