With Africa’s energy demand projected to increase by 45-55% by 2040, the continent’s downstream industry has a strategic opportunity to scale-up investments, modernize infrastructure and expand fuel distribution. 

According to Anibor Kragha, Executive Secretary of the African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA), “Everything begins with regulation. We need to look at each supply chain segment and invest in infrastructure - not only railroads and pipelines but the logistics to deliver petroleum products across the continent.”

ARDA’s Africa Refining and Storage Capacity Outlook forecasts that, with appropriate upgrades, the continent’s refining output could meet 90% of its petroleum product demand by 2030. According to the organization, Africa currently imports over 50% of its refined petroleum products. As such, bridging this gap will require coordinated action across governments, private sector players and international financial institutions.

Companies such as Technip Energies are working toward increasing Africa’s refining capacity. The company is modernizing the SAR refinery in Senegal to process the heavy Sangomar crude, following the start of production at the Sangomar oilfield in 2024. According to Tarik Berair, Commercial Manager of Technip Energies, “Everyone says Africa is one of the few places where demand is increasing. We want to refine in Africa.”

Berair added that refining projects in Africa must overcome hurdles in project structuring, stakeholder alignment and regulatory clarity. He said: “We must establish proper pricing and ensure financial viability throughout the project lifecycle.”

Offering a global outlook, Fernando Covas, Executive Director & Lead for Europe, CIS and Africa NGL Research at S&P Global Commodity Insights, emphasized the importance of cleaner cooking fuels. “If half of Africa could access LPG, we would significantly cut air pollution and reduce deforestation. The energy transition is about scale. In Africa, it looks very different. The goal of 100% electrification is ambitious, but LPG infrastructure is relatively simple and scalable.”

Expanding on Covas’ comments, Tamsin Donaldson, Head of Marketing and Communications, Petredec, brought attention to the health impacts of traditional cooking fuels. She stated that “more people die from indoor air pollution than from AIDS and tuberculosis combined. Our ambitious target is to convert households to LPG for cooking. Africa is the last frontier, and we’re determined to be part of the solution.”

Through the deployment of LPG, Africa can address these health implications while providing a low-cost and readily available fuel source. Alison Abbott, Communications Director, World Liquid Gas Association, pointed to the economic potential of the LPG value chain, particularly for small business development. “In the LPG industry, we have the opportunity to upskill entrepreneurs and drive innovation,” she said. “There are so many opportunities, and we need to support them with the right policies and tools.