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02 Dec 2025

De‑Risking Africa’s Deepwater: Recent Moves, Frontier Discoveries and Why Data Matters

De‑Risking Africa’s Deepwater: Recent Moves, Frontier Discoveries and Why Data Matters

Africa’s offshore frontier is stirring again. This week, international energy majors shook up Nigeria’s deepwater sector: TotalEnergies sold a 40% stake in two offshore exploration licenses – PPL 2000 and PPL 2001 – to Chevron, part of the country’s latest licensing round. Meanwhile, in Ghana, the government is actively negotiating to acquire Springfield Exploration and Production’s West Cape Three Points Block 2 (WCTP2) deepwater block, a field long recognized for its potential but delayed by development challenges. These moves signal a broader trend: high‑value frontier assets are being traded, reappraised or brought under state oversight as investors and governments alike seek to manage geological and financial risk.

Meanwhile, further south along the African coast in Namibia, the offshore landscape is evolving quickly. The southern Orange Basin continues to draw attention after a string of recent discoveries: not only the well-known Venus Field (Block 2913B) – first struck in 2022 by TotalEnergies – but also more recent finds such as Capricornus‑1X and Volans‑1X, drilled by Rhino Resources in 2025, as well as the Mopane Complex discoveries by Galp in 2024. For Venus, partners including NAMCOR, QatarEnergy and Impact Oil and Gas have committed to advancing development, with FID targeted for early 2026.

At the same time, in Ivory Coast, the Calao discovery – announced in March 2024 from the Murene 1X well in Block CI‑205 – has been assessed at around 1–1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent, making it the country’s second‑largest offshore find after Baleine. Follow-up appraisal and seismic-survey work continues across both the Ivorian and Namibian blocks, reflecting a strong commitment to convert these discoveries into production.

This contrast between license reshuffling in legacy basins like Nigeria’s and Ghana’s, and fast-tracked frontier development in Namibia and Ivory Coast, reflects a dual narrative across Africa’s deepwater sector: on one hand, established zones being re‑evaluated under new risk parameters, and on the other, newly emerging basins being pushed toward development at pace.

Against this backdrop,  the Invest in African Energy 2026 Forum in Paris will feature a dedicated panel on “De‑Risking Deepwater Exploration for Africa’s Billion Dollar Finds,” bringing together geoscientists, data analysts, operators, financiers and regulators to discuss how modern methods – from advanced geophysical imaging and 3D/4D seismic reprocessing to probabilistic reservoir modeling and basin‑wide risk frameworks – can transform high-risk frontier prospects into credible, financeable assets.

In regions like Namibia’s Orange Basin and Ivory Coast’s deep offshore, such tools could make the difference between prolonged appraisal and moving frontier discoveries decisively toward development. In more mature zones, like Nigeria’s West Delta and Ghana’s WCTP2, the same technologies may help re‑assess resource potential, optimize work‑programs and attract financing under tighter risk‑reward scrutiny.

For both investors and host states, the convergence of fresh license deals, active frontier development and improved technical capabilities presents a narrow window of opportunity. The decisions made in the next 12–24 months – what gets drilled, appraised or abandoned – are likely to determine whether Africa’s deepwater sector can establish itself as a stable growth engine. In the current moment – with shifting assets, emerging basins and rising demand for disciplined investment – IAE 2026 represents a real opportunity to build foundational frameworks for Africa’s future offshore.

IAE 2026 is an exclusive forum designed to connect African energy markets with global investors, serving as a key platform for deal-making in the lead-up to African Energy Week. Scheduled for April 22–23, 2026, in Paris, the event will provide delegates with two days of in-depth engagement with industry experts, project developers, investors and policymakers. For more information, visit www.invest-africa-energy.com. To sponsor or register as a delegate, please contact sales@energycapitalpower.com

 

 

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