At a time of heightened geopolitical fragmentation, volatile commodity markets and tighter global capital allocation, mispriced risk is directly constraining capital flows into African energy projects. This disconnect is increasingly untenable, underscoring the need for investors and institutions to reassess legacy risk models and align them with current market fundamentals.

“Volatility in global oil markets is creating both challenges and opportunities for producers,” Corley said. “The core difficulty today lies less in the availability of hedging tools and more in aligning stakeholders around a common strategy in an increasingly unpredictable pricing environment.”

Rapid price swings are disrupting traditional decision-making cycles. “It is not uncommon for parties to agree on a strategy and then be forced back to the drawing board when crude prices shift by as much as $10 per barrel overnight,” Corley said. As a result, producers are increasingly relying on option-based strategies and structured instruments such as put spreads to balance downside protection with upside exposure.

From the trading perspective, Filippo Bof, Head of Business Development, Shell Trading & Shipping, said Africa is still largely mischaracterized in global risk models. “Africa is often treated by investors as a single, homogeneous risk category, despite the reality that risk profiles vary significantly between countries and even within the same jurisdiction,” he said.

The issue is not lack of information but lack of structured use of existing data. “If operational data – such as uptime, export consistency and cash flow resilience – were consistently integrated into investment models, risk would be priced far more accurately,” Bof noted. “However, investors often lack either the capacity or incentive to continuously update their assumptions, leading to mispricing driven by legacy perceptions.”

However, recent industry moves signal a step in the right direction. From a financing and infrastructure perspective, Oluwatoyin Aina, Deputy General Manager and Group Head Energy, First Bank of Nigeria, pointed out that, “We are seeing increasing alignment between national priorities and investor interests. Nigeria alone has committed around $40 billion toward infrastructure and industrial development to unlock midstream and downstream capacity,” she noted.

Aina also highlighted a structural shift toward domestic value creation, stating that, “Countries are moving away from exporting raw resources toward in-country processing and industrialization.”  

Collectively, the panel underscored that Africa’s energy opportunity is no longer constrained by resource potential but by the accuracy of risk pricing. Katrin Pütz, Founder and Managing Director of (B)energy, concluded, “Creating sustainable demand, strengthening local businesses and ensuring policy alignment will be essential to unlocking meaningful and lasting progress.”